Press Release - NDS


Title: Delinquencies and Foreclosures Increase in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey
Source:   MBA
Date: 9/5/2008
Contacts:
Name:Phone:Email:
 Carolyn Kemp(202) 557-2727ckemp@mortgagebankers.org

WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 5, 2008) — The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties stood at 6.41 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2008, up six basis points from the first quarter of 2008, and up 129 basis points from one year ago on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. 

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 2.75 percent, an increase of 28 basis points from the first quarter of 2008 and 135 basis points from one year ago.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the second quarter was 1.08 percent, up 7 basis points from last quarter and up 49 basis points from one year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. 

The seasonally adjusted total delinquency rate continues to be the highest recorded in the MBA survey.  The increase in the overall delinquency rate was driven by increases in the number of loans 90 or more days past due, primarily in California and Florida.  The 30 day delinquency percentage remains below levels seen as recently as 2002.

Once again this quarter, the rate of foreclosure starts and the percentage of loans in the process of foreclosure set new records.
The foreclosure starts rate differed greatly by loan type.  For prime loans, foreclosure starts on fixed rate loans were 0.34 percent, an increase of five basis points, while prime ARM foreclosure starts were 1.82 percent, a 26 basis point increase. For subprime loans, fixed rate foreclosure starts increased 27 basis points to 2.07 percent and subprime ARM foreclosure starts increased 31 basis points to 6.63 percent. FHA foreclosure starts decreased one basis point to 0.95 percent and VA foreclosure starts increased six basis points to 0.57 percent, all on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
“The national foreclosure numbers continue to be driven by the hardest hit states continuing to get much worse. The increases in foreclosures in California and Florida overwhelmed improvements in states like Texas, Massachusetts and Maryland,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Economics.  “For the quarter, a majority of the states saw relatively little change one way or the other. California and Florida alone accounted for 39 percent of all of the foreclosures started in the country during the second quarter and 73 percent of the increase in foreclosures between the first and second quarters.”

Only eight states had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average: Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana, and Ohio.  The remaining 42 states plus the District of Columbia were below the national average.

“The other factor that continues to drive foreclosure rates is loan type,” continued Brinkmann.  “Subprime ARM loans accounted for 36 percent of all foreclosures started and prime ARMs, which include option ARMs, represented 23 percent.  However, the increase in prime ARMs foreclosure starts was greater than the combined increase in fixed-rate and ARM subprime loans.  Thus the foreclosure start numbers will likely be increasingly dominated increasingly by prime ARM loans.

California and Florida accounted for 58 percent of all prime ARM foreclosure starts in the second quarter and 78 percent of the increase in prime ARM foreclosure starts. The foreclosure starts rates on prime ARMs were 2.47 percent for California and 3.20 percent for Florida, versus the national median of 1.06 percent.  The foreclosure starts rate for subprime ARM loans in California was 9.5 percent and in Florida 9.1 percent, about double the national median rate for subprime ARMs.

 “Perhaps the question most asked these days is whether we are close to a bottom, in other words, when will delinquency and foreclosure rates begin to head down.  The simple answer is that the idea of a national bottom is somewhat meaningless.  Real estate markets are local and some markets are already improving.  For example, even Michigan, one of the worst hit markets in the country, has now gone three quarters with little to no increase in its rate of foreclosures.  Likewise, Massachusetts showed a very large drop in foreclosure starts, perhaps signaling a bottom.  Because of the sheer size of California and Florida, an improvement in the national numbers, whether delinquencies, home prices or any other measure, is unlikely until we see some turnaround in those two states,” Brinkmann said.

MBA reports seasonally adjusted and unadjusted numbers for the major mortgage performance indices.  30-day delinquencies exhibit the strongest seasonality, followed by 60-day and 90-day delinquencies.   For foreclosure starts, the difference between the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted numbers is normally only a few basis points (see chart at the end of the press release).  For the first time this quarter, the difference jumped to 11 basis points.  The reason is that with the fundamental changes in mortgage performance, seasonal adjustment models estimated in more benign environments can lead to questionable results and incorrect conclusions.  Since the fundamental factors now driving foreclosures clearly overwhelm any seasonal factors, the seasonally adjusted results for foreclosure starts are most likely misleading unless there is a major increase in the third quarter.


Change from last quarter (first quarter of 2008)

The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 22 basis points for prime loans to 3.93 percent. The delinquency rate decreased 12 basis points for subprime loans to 18.67 percent, decreased nine basis points for FHA loans to 12.63 percent, and decreased 40 basis points for VA loans to 6.82 percent.

The foreclosure inventory rate increased 20 basis points for prime loans to 1.42 percent, and increased 107 basis points for subprime loans to 11.81 percent. FHA loans saw a 16 basis point decrease in foreclosure inventory rate to 2.24 percent, while the foreclosure inventory rate for VA loans increased nine basis points to 1.33 percent.

The non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate increased six basis points for prime loans to 0.61 percent, increased 18 basis points for subprime loans to 4.26 percent, increased six basis points for VA loans to 0.57 percent, and declined one basis point for FHA loans to 0.95 percent.

The seriously delinquent rate, the non-seasonally adjusted percentage of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent, or in the process of foreclosure, was up from both last quarter and from last year. This measure is designed to account for inter-company differences on when a loan enters the foreclosure process.

Compared with last quarter, the seriously delinquent rate increased for all loan types, except FHA loans. The rate increased 36 basis points for prime loans to 2.35 percent, increased 143 basis points for subprime loans to 17.85 percent, increased 12 basis points for VA loans percent to 3 percent and decreased 16 basis points for FHA loans to 5.43 percent.

Change from last year (second quarter of 2007)

On a year-over-year basis, the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased for all loan types. The delinquency rate increased 120 basis points for prime loans, increased 385 basis points for subprime loans, increased five basis points for FHA loans, and increased 67 basis points for VA loans.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased 83 basis points for prime loans and 629 basis points for subprime loans. The rate increased nine basis points for FHA loans and 31 basis points for VA loans.

The non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate increased 49 basis points overall, 36 basis points for prime loans, 181 basis points for subprime loans, 21 basis points for FHA loans, and 23 basis points for VA loans.

The seriously delinquent rate was 137 basis points higher for prime loans and 858 basis points higher for subprime loans. The rate also increased 25 basis points for FHA loans and 65 basis points for VA loans.

If you are a member of the media and would like a copy of the survey, please contact Carolyn Kemp at (202) 557-2727 or ckemp@mortgagebankers.org. If you are not a member of the media and would like to purchase the survey, please call (800) 348-8653.

Rates of foreclosures started – All Loans

Date            Seasonally Adjusted  Non-Seasonally Adjusted   Difference
2000 - Q1     0.36                        0.36                                 0.00
2000 - Q2     0.31                        0.30                                 0.01
2000 - Q3     0.44                        0.42                                 0.02
2000 - Q4     0.41                        0.43                                 -0.02
2001 - Q1     0.39                        0.40                                 -0.01
2001 - Q2     0.48                        0.47                                  0.01
2001 - Q3     0.48                        0.46                                  0.02
2001 - Q4     0.44                        0.47                                  -0.03
2002 - Q1     0.44                        0.45                                  -0.01
2002 - Q2     0.50                        0.49                                   0.01
2002 - Q3     0.45                        0.44                                   0.01
2002 - Q4     0.41                        0.42                                   -0.01
2003 - Q1     0.41                        0.41                                    0.00
2003 - Q2     0.36                        0.36                                    0.00
2003 - Q3     0.44                        0.43                                    0.01
2003 - Q4     0.45                        0.46                                    -0.01
2004 - Q1     0.47                        0.46                                     0.01
2004 - Q2     0.40                        0.39                                     0.01
2004 - Q3     0.40                        0.42                                     -0.02
2004 - Q4     0.46                        0.46                                      0.00
2005 - Q1     0.42                        0.42                                      0.00
2005 - Q2     0.39                        0.38                                      0.01
2005 - Q3     0.41                        0.41                                      0.00
2005 - Q4     0.42                        0.42                                      0.00
2006 - Q1     0.41                        0.42                                       -0.01
2006 - Q2     0.43                        0.40                                       0.03
2006 - Q3     0.46                        0.47                                       -0.01
2006 - Q4     0.54                        0.57                                       -0.03
2007 - Q1     0.58                        0.59                                       -0.01
2007 - Q2     0.65                        0.59                                        0.06
2007 - Q3     0.78                        0.78                                        0.00
2007 - Q4     0.83                        0.88                                        -0.05
2008 - Q1     0.99                        1.01                                        -0.02
2008 - Q2     1.19                        1.08                                         0.11
Source:  MBA NDS

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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation's residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 2,200 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA's Web site:   www.mba.org.