|Title: ||Delinquencies Continue to Climb, Foreclosures Flat in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey|
WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 20, 2009) — The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of
9.24 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2009, up 12 basis points from the first quarter
of 2009, and up 283 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency
Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 64 basis points from 8.22 percent in the first quarter of 2009
to 8.86 percent this quarter.
Top Line Results
The delinquency rate breaks the record set last quarter. The records are based on MBA data dating back to 1972.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process
of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.30 percent, an
increase of 45 basis points from the first quarter of 2009 and 155 basis points from one year ago. The combined percentage
of loans in foreclosure and at least one payment past due was 13.16 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest
ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the second quarter was 1.36 percent, down one basis
point from last quarter and up 28 basis points from one year ago.
The percentages of loans 90 days or more past due and loans in foreclosure both set new record highs, breaking records set
last quarter. The percentage of loans 30 days past due is still well below the record set in the second quarter of 1985.
Increases Driven by Prime Fixed-Rate Loans
“While the rate of new foreclosures started was essentially unchanged from last quarter’s record high, there was a major drop
in foreclosures on subprime ARM loans. The drop, however, was offset by increases in the foreclosure rates on the other types
of loans, with prime fixed-rate loans having the biggest increase. As a sign that mortgage performance is once again being
driven by unemployment, prime fixed-rate loans now account for one in three foreclosure starts. A year ago they accounted
for one in five. While 41 states had increases in the foreclosure start rate for prime fixed-rate loans, 43 states had decreases
in that rate for subprime adjustable-rate loans,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.
“The states of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada continue to have a disproportionately high share of foreclosure starts,
although the share has fallen slightly from last quarter. Those four states had 44 percent of all of the nation’s new foreclosures
during the second quarter of this year, down from 46 percent in the first quarter.
“Florida continues to establish itself as the worst state in the union for mortgage performance, closely followed only by
Nevada. In Florida 12 percent of mortgages were somewhere in the process of foreclosure, the highest in the nation, and another
5 percent were at least 90 days past due as of the end of June. A total of 22.8 percent were delinquent at least one payment
or in the process of foreclosure, which is almost twice the national percentage if the Florida numbers are excluded. In contrast,
the next highest states are Nevada at 21.3 percent, Arizona at 16.3 percent and Michigan at 15.8 percent.
“We also saw a major jump in FHA foreclosures. The percentage of loans with foreclosures started, the percentage of loans
in foreclosure and the percentage of loans 90 days or more past due are all records for FHA. While the foreclosure starts
rate for FHA loans at 1.15 percent is lower than all other loan types with the exception of prime fixed-rate loans, the FHA
percentages have remained low due to a large increase in the number of loans outstanding, the so-called “denominator effect”.
If the number of FHA loans had stayed the same as a year ago and we saw the same number of foreclosures, the FHA foreclosure
rate would be almost 1.5 percent.
“As for the outlook, it is unlikely we will see meaningful reductions in the foreclosure and delinquency rates until the employment
situation improves. In addition, in some areas where a number of borrowers have mortgages that are larger than the current
value of their homes, any life events such a divorce or loss of a job are likely to translate into foreclosures until prices
in those areas recover, not just flatten.
“Finally, while the various loan modification programs continue to have an impact on holding foreclosure rates below where
they otherwise would be, the issue is that many of the foreclosures involve homes that are vacant, borrowers who no longer
have jobs, or loans where there was fraud involved. Therefore, in measuring the effectiveness of industry or government loan
modification programs it is necessary to compare the results not with the total foreclosure and delinquency numbers reported
here but with the smaller subset of borrowers who can and want to qualify,” Brinkmann said.
Change from last quarter (first quarter of 2009)
The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 35 basis points for prime loans (from 6.06 percent to 6.41 percent), 40
basis points for subprime loans (from 24.95 percent to 25.35 percent), and 58 basis points for FHA loans (from 13.84 percent
to 14.42 percent), but decreased 15 basis points for VA loans (from 8.21 percent to 8.06 percent).
The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process increased 51 basis points for prime loans (from 2.49 percent to 3.00 percent),
and increased 71 basis points for subprime loans (from 14.34 percent to 15.05 percent). FHA loans saw a 22 basis point increase
in the foreclosure inventory rate (from 2.76 percent to 2.98 percent), while the foreclosure inventory rate for VA loans increased
14 basis points (from 1.93 percent to 2.07 percent).
The non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate increased seven basis points for prime loans (from 0.94 percent to 1.01
percent) and increased five basis points for FHA loans (from 1.10 percent to 1.15 percent). This rate decreased 52 basis points
for subprime loans (from 4.65 percent to 4.13 percent) and decreased four basis points for VA loans (from 0.72 percent to
The seriously delinquent rate, the non-seasonally adjusted percentage of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent, or in
the process of foreclosure, was up from both last quarter and from last year. This measure is designed to account for inter-company
differences on when a loan enters the foreclosure process.
Compared with last quarter, the non-seasonally adjusted seriously delinquent rate increased for all loan types. The rate increased
74 basis points for prime loans (from 4.70 percent to 5.44 percent), 164 basis points for subprime loans (from 24.88 percent
to 26.52 percent), 41 basis points for FHA loans (from 7.37 percent to 7.78 percent), and 27 basis points for VA loans (from
4.42 percent to 4.69 percent).
Change from last year (second quarter of 2008)
On a year-over-year basis, the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased for all loan types. The increase was 248 basis
points for prime loans, 668 basis points for subprime loans, 179 basis points for FHA loans, and 124 basis points for VA loans.
Compared with the second quarter of 2008, the percentage of loans in the process of foreclosure increased 158 basis points
for prime loans and 324 basis points for subprime loans. The rate increased 74 basis points for FHA loans and 74 basis points
for VA loans.
The non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate increased 40 basis points for prime loans, 20 basis points for FHA loans,
and 11 basis points for VA loans. The starts rate decreased 13 basis points for subprime loans.
The seriously delinquent rate was 309 basis points higher for prime loans and 867 basis points higher for subprime loans.
The rate also increased 235 basis points for FHA loans and 169 basis points for VA loans.
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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry
that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the
association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation's residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand
homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and
fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety
of publications. Its membership of over 2,200 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies,
mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending
field. For additional information, visit MBA's Web site: www.mba.org.